The Trump administration is making a renewed attempt to fundamentally alter how the United States conducts its once-a-decade population count, reviving a controversial proposal that could reshape the balance of political power across the country for years to come.
At stake is the census, the constitutionally mandated headcount of every person living in the United States. The results of this count are used to reapportion seats in the House of Representatives and, by extension, votes in the Electoral College — a process known as congressional apportionment. The administration's proposal would, for the first time in American history, exclude residents who are not U.S. citizens or green-card holders from the population totals used for that purpose.
The Constitution requires a count of every person living in the states once every ten years, regardless of immigration status. State population totals derived from that count are then used to reassign House seats and Electoral College votes among the states. States that gain population typically gain political representation, while those that lose population may see their influence diminish.
NPR correspondent Hansi Lo Wang, who has covered the census extensively, explains the stakes in a newly updated comic published by the network. The comic, which was originally released in 2020 and 2021, has been revised to reflect the administration's latest efforts ahead of the 2030 census.
According to the reporting, the Trump administration wants to change who gets included in the apportionment counts. Specifically, it seeks to leave out any resident who is not a U.S. citizen or a green-card holder — a category that includes undocumented immigrants, visa holders, and other noncitizens living in the country.
This proposal would render some residents effectively invisible in the apportionment process. The practical effect could be a shift in political power away from states that have higher numbers of certain noncitizen residents, including people without legal status. States with large immigrant populations could lose congressional seats and Electoral College votes, while states with smaller noncitizen populations could gain relative influence.
The proposal is expected to set off significant court battles. Legal experts and civil rights organizations have long argued that the Constitution's census clause requires a count of all persons, not just citizens, and that excluding any residents from apportionment counts would violate both the letter and the spirit of the founding document.
The administration's effort is not new. President Trump attempted a similar change during his first term but ultimately failed to implement it. Now, with the 2030 census on the horizon, his administration is trying again — setting up what could be a prolonged legal and political fight over the very definition of who counts in American democracy.
The process of congressional apportionment is often described as a relay race. The runners are the commerce secretary, who oversees the Census Bureau; the president; and Congress. The batons are the state population counts and the House reapportionment numbers. Each participant plays a critical role in ensuring that political power is distributed according to the most accurate population data available.
The Census Bureau, which operates under the Department of Commerce, is responsible for conducting the count and delivering the results. The president then transmits the apportionment counts to Congress, which uses them to determine how many House seats each state will receive for the next decade. Those seat allocations directly affect the number of Electoral College votes each state holds in presidential elections.
If the administration succeeds in excluding noncitizens from apportionment counts, the consequences could be far-reaching. States like California, Texas, New York, and Florida — which have large immigrant populations, including many noncitizens — could see their congressional delegations shrink. Meanwhile, states with more homogeneous populations could see their relative power in Washington grow.
Critics argue that such a change would undermine the principle of equal representation and could discourage immigrant communities from participating in the census at all. Census advocates have long warned that any attempt to add a citizenship question or exclude noncitizens from apportionment could depress response rates, leading to an inaccurate count that harms communities across the country.
Supporters of the administration's proposal contend that congressional seats should be allocated based on the number of citizens or lawful permanent residents, arguing that it is unfair for states with large noncitizen populations to gain additional representation. However, this view is not supported by the text of the Constitution, which calls for counting "the whole number of persons" in each state.
The coming court battles will likely center on the meaning of that constitutional language and on whether the administration has the legal authority to change the apportionment base without congressional approval. Previous legal challenges to similar proposals have met with resistance in federal courts, but the administration appears prepared to pursue the matter through the judicial system.
For now, the proposal remains just that — a proposal. But with the 2030 census still several years away, the administration has time to refine its approach and build a legal case. The outcome will determine not only how many representatives each state has in Congress but also how much say each state has in choosing the president for a decade to come.
The stakes could hardly be higher. The census is more than just a statistical exercise; it is the foundation upon which American representative democracy is built. How the country chooses to count its residents — and who it chooses to count — will shape the political landscape for generations.
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